2013-14 NBL Season preview
TweetPERTH will add Championship No.6 to its trophy cabinet in what should be a landmark season for the NBL in 2013-14.
No, NBL Pty Ltd couldn't step as far away from BA as it wanted with the demerger, due to existing TV and other contracts it inherited.
But the clubs are on the same page in recognising fans want to be entertained, have decreed the game shall be officiated accordingly and done their bit by bringing in some fresh talent, and not just in the import crop.
AJ Ogilvy, Mark Worthington, Steve Markovic, Mitch Young ... expect to hear those names a bit this year too.
Not just James Ennis, Jermaine Beal, Gary Ervin, Jarrid Frye, Scott Morrison, Ayinde Ubaka, Kerron Johnson, Darnell Lazare, Jesse Sanders, Charles Carmouche, Rotnei Clarke, Josh Pace, Brian Conklin, Demetri McCamey and Jamar Wilson.
Ennis already has announced his bona fides by winning the Ray Borner Medal at the Blitz and, now Stephen Dennis is out for the count, expect him to add the MVP award to that by season's end.
Young will follow Cairns teammate Cam Gliddon as Rookie of the Year and look for Lucas Walker to give the Most Improved trophy a shake. And bake.
Unlike the WNBL, where it was easiest to plump for Bendigo to repeat, the pressure on new Breakers coach Dean Vickerman to do what has never before been done - win a fourth straight title - and pull that off in his rookie finding-your-feet season makes it hard to see New Zealand retaining.
The Breakers will be there at the business end - no doubt - but I expect Shawn Redhage and Trevor Gleeson to have their hands on the Dr John Raschke Trophy when it is all said and done.
No, I haven't followed convention and I know from reaction to my News Ltd season preview at: http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/basketball/full-201314-nbl-season-preview-8212-a-teambyteam-analysis/story-fnii09gt-1226735554657 that people are questioning my sanity with my predictions for Melbourne (2nd) and Adelaide (5th) in particular. So be it.
Remember, all pre-tipoff predictions for the year (here and anywhere else, by anyone having a punt for that matter) are based on everyone staying key injury-free. That said, my final order is: 1 Perth; 2 Melbourne; 3 New Zealand; 4 Cairns; 5 Adelaide; 6 Sydney; 7 Wollongong; 8 Townsville.
Here's why:
THE LINEUPS
ADELAIDE 36ERS
Titles: 4
Last Year: 8-20, 8th
Coach: Joey Wright (166-120, 58%)
Returning: Jason Cadee, Mitch Creek, Adam Gibson, Daniel Johnson, Anthony Petrie, Luke Schenscher.
New: BJ Anthony (Oceana Gold Nuggets, NZNBL), *Gary Ervin (Townsville Crocodiles), *Jarrid Frye (Stjarnan, Iceland), Brendan Teys (Brisbane Spartans), Stephen Weigh (Cairns Taipans).
Out: *Scott Christopherson (Somewhere singing ‘For The Good times’), Nathan Crosswell (ret), CJ Massingale (Knox Raiders, SEABL), Pero Vasiljevic (In cotton wool for next year’s match V SBL All Stars).
Best case: Gibbo stays healthy, Schensch steadily works his way back and the up-tempo game takes the 36ers into the post-season.
Worst case: Schensch is a non-factor, better teams work out how to contain the 36ers in the first 10 seconds of the shot-clock and they sit out the dance.
Money man: Gary Ervin
Time-Out: The 36ers last won a finals match on March 12, 2003 when Mitch Creek was 11. Jacob Holmes, Matt Burston and James Harvey are the only players from that game still active today.
My Tip: 5th
CAIRNS TAIPANS
Titles: 0
Last Year: 11-17, 6th
Coach: Aaron Fearne (56-62, 47%)
Returning: Shaun Bruce, Cameron Gliddon, Alex Loughton, Clint Steindl, Cameron Tragardh, *Jamar Wilson.
New: Matt Burston (Melbourne Tigers), *Demetri McCamey (Fort Wayne, D-League), Stephen Weigh (Adelaide 36ers), Mitch Young (St Mary’s College).
Out: *Shane Edwards (Packing shelves), Aaron Grabau (ret), Brad Hill (Sydney Kings), Dusty Rychart (ret), Kerry Williams (ret).
Best case: The Taipans retire Alex Loughton’s 3-point shot with Aaron Grabau’s uniform, and make it back to the semi finals.
Worst case: Loughton makes an early three and cannot be coaxed back down to the block, although even Oscar Forman calls to tell him the paint isn’t really toxic.
Money man: Cameron … Gliddon
Time-Out: Young (Rookie/Sixth Man), Gliddon (Improved), Fearne (coach) should give the end-of-season awards a shake, except the Dr John Raschke Trophy.
My Tip: 4th
MELBOURNE TIGERS
Titles: 4
Last Year: 12-16, 5th
Coach: Chris Anstey (12-16, 43%)
Returning: Adam Ballinger, Chris Goulding, Tommy Greer, Nate Tomlinson, Lucas Walker.
New: Auryn Macmillan (Wollongong Hawks), *Scott Morrison (Bremerhaven, Germany), Greg Page (DP), Owen Odigie (DP), *Ayinde Ubaka (Hoverla, Ukraine), Mark Worthington (Radnicki, Serbia).
Out: *Kevin Braswell (Southland Sharks, NZNBL), Matt Burston (Cairns Taipans), *Stephen Dennis (Pre-season inj), *Jonny Flynn (Sichuan, China), Bennie Lewis (Seeking career advice from Brett Rainbow), Liam Rush (Uppsala, Sweden), *Seth Scott (Humacao, Puerto Rico).
Best case: The Tigers gel even before Bubbles returns and they return to post-season bubbles, making it harder than ever to release Ubaka.
Worst case: Morrison is in foul trouble, Wortho and Walker struggle with niggly injuries, Goulding and Greer return but the mix doesn't match and the Tigers miss the playoffs.
Money man: Mark Worthington
Time-Out: If Morrison is 7-foot, I’m 6-6 and Chris Anstey is 7-5. Just saying.
My Tip: 2nd
NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS
Titles: 3
Last Year: 24-4, 1st, Won Championship
Coach: Dean Vickerman (R)
Returning: Tom Abercrombie, CJ Bruton, Daryl Corletto, Alex Pledger, Mika Vukona, Corey Webster.
New: *Kerron Johnson (Belmont University), *Darnell Lazare (Sydney Kings), Reuben Te Rangi (Southland Sharks, NZNBL), Jeremiah Trueman (Perth Wildcats).
Out: Dillon Boucher (ret), Leon Henry (Southland Sharks, NZNBL), *Will Hudson (Prowling, Apartment), *Cedric Jackson (Union Olimpija, Slovenia)
Best case: Abers dominates the wing, KJ makes fans forget CJ (Cedric, not Bruton), Webster flourishes and Vickerman leads them to a record fourth Championship in succession.
Worst case: Bruton, Corletto and Vukona lose a step and NZ bows out in the semis.
Money man: Kerron Johnson
Time-Out: The Breakers are the first team since Perth in 1991 defending their championship with a new head coach.
My Tip: 3rd
PERTH WILDCATS
Titles: 5
Last Year: 22-6, 2nd, Lost Grand Final
Coach: Trevor Gleeson (103-88, 54%) Returning: Greg Hire, Matt Knight, Damian Martin, Shawn Redhage, Jesse Wagstaff.
New: *Jermaine Beal (Minas, Brazil), Erik Burdon (Mt Gambier Pioneers, SEABL), U’u Drake (California Polytechnic State U), *James Ennis (Long Beach State U), Tom Jervis (East Perth Eagles, WASBL), Jarrad Prue (Lakeside Lightning, WASBL).
Out: Everard Bartlett (Hawkes Bay Hawks, NZNBL), Rhys Carter (Byda Fone, Spain), *Kevin Lisch (JSF Nanterre, France), Brad Robbins (ret), Cam Tovey (ret), Jeremiah Trueman (NZ Breakers).
Best case: Gleeson leaves his pocket notes at home, Ennis is at his athletic best, Beal appeals and the hardy Damo, Shawno, Jesso, Grego and Knightie lead Perth to title numero six.
Worst case: Ennis is recalled by Miami Heat, Knight continues his injury issues and Perth is a semi final casualty.
Money man: James Ennis
Time-Out: Brad Robbins agrees with Daryl Corletto this new sissy NBL is too much like netball, although DC has pulled his head in since Julie saw that article.
My Tip: 1st
SYDNEY KINGS
Titles: 3
Last Year: 12-16, 4th, lost in semi finals
Coach: Shane Heal (34-56, 38%)
Returning: Tom Garlepp, James Harvey, Ben Madgen, Kevin White.
New: Ben Allen (Townsville Crocodiles), Kyle Armour (Willetton Tigers, WASBL), *Charles Carmouche (Louisiana State University), Cody Ellis (St Louis University), Shaun Gleeson (Gladstone, QBL), Brad Hill (Cairns Taipans), AJ Ogilvy (Brose Baskets, Germany), *Jesse Sanders (Fileni BPA Jesi, Italy).
Out: Aaron Bruce (Neighbours), Ian Crosswhite (ret), Graeme Dann (ret), *Corin Henry (BC Rilski Sportlist, Bulgaria), *Darnell Lazare (NZ Breakers), Luke Martin (Southland Sharks, NZNBL).
Best case: The Madge comes up trumps, Harvey plays at least half the season, AJ is a star, Ellis fits in seamlessly and the Kings return to the semi finals.
Worst case: Ben Allen starts.
Money man: AJ Ogilvy
Time-Out: It's a worry when the 25th anniversary Kings team would beat the current lineup, even now.
My Tip: 6th
TOWNSVILLE CROCODILES
Titles: 0
Last Year: 10-18, 7th
Coach: Shawn Dennis (30-56, 35%)
Returning: Todd Blanchfield, Peter Crawford, Russell Hinder, Jacob Holmes, Mitch Norton.
New: *Brian Conklin (Southland Sharks, NZNBL), Mirko Djeric (Wollongong Hawks), Steve Markovic (Radnicki, Serbia), *Josh Pace (Nelson Giants, NZNBL), Scott Kenny (Brisbane Spartans, SEABL), Greg Vanderjagt (Wilderness, Qld).
Out: *Larry Abney (Karate Club), Ben Allen (Sydney Kings), Chris Cedar (I'm not Michael), Michael Cedar (QBL is my life), *Gary Ervin (Adelaide 36ers), Luke Nevill (Lurch's Legacy - The Addams Family One Man Show).
Best case: Conklin stays out of foul trouble to be a keyway beast, Djeric and Kenny add shot selection to their undoubted long-range gifts and Townsville narrowly misses the playoffs.
Worst case: Conklin runs into foul trouble – remember Nick Horvath? – Peter Crawford struggles to make an impact and Townsville has the distinction of being the best last-placed finisher this century.
Money man: Brian Conklin
Time-Out: Mirko Djeric is the only player in the NBL who doesn’t need the ball to get a shot.
WOLLONGONG HAWKS
Titles: 1
Last Year: 13-15, 3rd, lost in semi finals
Coach: Gordon McLeod (171-209, 45%)
Returning: Tim Coenraad, Larry Davidson, Tyson Demos, Oscar Forman, Dave Gruber, Rhys Martin.
New: *Rotnei Clarke (Butler University), Dominique Cooks (Chaminade University), Shane Harris-Tunks (University of Colorado), Luke Jamieson (DP).
Out: *Adris Deleon (Vaqueros de Bayamon, Spain), *Lance Hurdle (Fingers crossed), Daniel Jackson (SG1-Atlantis), Auryn Macmillan (Melbourne Tigers), Glen Saville (ret), *Durrell Summers (Lu King, Formorcash).
Best case: Durrell $ummer$ returns, apologises and says he will play for bus fare – or the Hawks find someone comparable – and make it back to the semis.
Worst case: Durrell $ummer$ returns, apologises, says he will play for bus fare, then quits after two games because he can get a better trolley-bus deal in Krakow.
Money man: Rotnei Clarke
Time-Out: Larry Davidson, tired of being like everyone else, has a new short-back-and-sides haircut for the finals.
My Tip: 7th
*Denotes import
DP = development player
R = Rookie

