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Random dribbling: Rankings #20


ADELAIDE heads into the WNBL semi finals this weekend as the form team despite having to do the "hard yards" against Townsville from the knock-out playoff at Adelaide Arena.

Bendigo is just two wins from completing an absolute fairytale season and few (other than fans of the other three finalists) would be barracking for anyone else.

For a league MVP and women's basketball icon such as Kristi Harrower, the best possible story would be beating Adelaide in the Grand Final, completing a championship round-trip which began in 1994 when she was playmaking for Lightning's first title-winner. That would make a great story.

Of course, reigning champion Dandenong will have other ideas but their inability to beat the Spirit this season and recent pair of home losses to Adelaide show the Rangers are vulnerable.

They certainly aren't on anything like the roll which saw them storm their way through the 2011-12 playoff series where their toughest game was the KO semi final against Townsville.

The Fire make it back to at least where they finished last season - fourth - and coach Chris Lucas has the makings of a regular contender.

The KO clash with Adelaide will see Townsville at its best, its huge connection to the Lightning/SA programs and Adelaide Arena making it every much at home as the host.

Lucas coached Adelaide before the Fire, Jess Foley and Mia Newley are both past Lightning captains, Rachael Flanagan and Cherie Gallagher started their WNBL careers at the club. Olivia Thompson is as South Aussie as they come - half of Balaclava will be out to support her - Nicole Romeo also is a local and Kayla Standish is the sister of former import Tami Willey.

While the Fire rightly bristle at being called Adelaide Lite, Adelaide Lightning has its own north Queensland connections, with Peter Buckle the previous coach at Townsville, Nadeen Payne, Jo Hill and Amy Lewis all recruited from there.

Adelaide is on a seven-game win streak - reminiscent of Dandenong last season - and has its Olympians (Suzy Batkovic, Jenni Screen, Laura Hodges, Angela Marino, Jo Hill) playing like it. Expect Lightning to advance in a closer encounter than most expect.

Dandenong should have Canadian centre Krista Phillips back from her sore hammy, sore elbow, sore knees or "all of the above" - and here's me thinking that "oh, I'm so hurt" drama was a particularly American trait - to take on Bendigo.

The Spirit had Dandenong's measure all through the regular season and have too many seasoned veterans - Renae Camino for example was 2008 Grand Final MVP - to suddenly suffer stage fright.

The Rangers' propensity to play individually and the sometimes erratic nature of the substitution pattern has reduced them from a well-oiled machine to an efficient but occasionally spluttering generator - in other words, they can still light up, but they can break down too.

Championship vets such as Jenna O'Hea, Kath MacLeod, Tegan Cunningham should step up and Monica Wright is a great import. But Kelsey Griffin is no slouch, Gabrielle Richards has had All Star-type games, Chelsea Aubry, Kelly Wilson, Chantella Perera ... the Spirit is willing and the body is strong.

I'm tipping a Dandenong-Adelaide preliminary final in the next round.


NOT surprised Patty Mills was surprised - and tweeted as much - with the latest betting at Sportsbet.com.au on the potential next Boomers coach.

Patty probably was stunned to see himself on the eighth line of the odds at $101, behind No.#1 rated Andrej Lemanis at $1.75, Rob Beveridge at $2.05, then Marty Clarke at $3.25!

Seriously now, this has to be a joke, right?

Shane Heal, Luc Longley, Brian Goorjian, Andrew Gaze and Lindsay Gaze complete their field so, clearly, it WAS a joke.

But without stating the bleeding obvious about just how silly those rankings are, Sportsbet has no credibility whatsoever if it doesn't have Gordie McLeod in its field.

Gordie or Bevo would be my first choice for Boomers boss to Rio, with the length of the straight to the others, Brett Brown's London assistants included.


BIG big round of NBL - with top four implications - coming up despite only four games.

Perth has a similar scenario to last week, playing at home first, then on the road on Sunday, this time against Sydney.

That's huge for the Kings but Perth's homer against the Tigers is equally big for Melbourne's top-four aspirations.

With Luke Schenscher rested, less players meant more court-time and with the pressure off getting guys into the game, Adelaide snatched a last-gasp win in Cairns. Wollongong meanwhile played well in Auckland, then smacked Townsville making this clash at The Sandpit potentially a very attractive contest.

Cairns-Townsville is always salty and Sydney, with its backs to the wall, must face Perth full on. It's rare where a case could be made for any game of the weekend to be declared "match of the round" but there you go.
 

NBL Rankings

This Wk ... Prev


8 (7) TAIPANS - Lost at home to Adelaide. There goes the season.

7 (8) 36ERS - Broke the drought with a shorter player rotation. Who knew?

6 (4) CROCS - Dramatic fall from grace, and it may not be over yet.

5 (6) KINGS - Gallant in defeat but no respite in sight.

4 (5) HAWKS - Two solid performances and can build momentum now.

3 (3) TIGERS - Still their own worst enemies and now it's Perth in the west.

2 (1) BREAKERS - Held out Hawks but needing challenges.

1 (2) WILDCATS - Another tough double but impressed last weekend.


Final WNBL Rankings

This Wk ... Prev


9 (9) WAVES - Finished as expected and still with a lot of work ahead in 2013-14.

8 (8) THUNDER - Late injuries didn't excuse a disappointing season.

7 (7) CAPITALS - Have stability going forward after a season of graffic instability.

6 (6) FLAMES - Still disappointing but the coach is secure. Question is why?

5 (5) BOOMERS - Have makings of a contender if they can keep them all together.

4 (4) FIRE - Best of the rest and 2012-13 a solid foundation on which to build.

3 (2) RANGERS - All the talent in the world won't win it if they don't play together.

2 (3) SPIRIT - On the threshold of completing the fairytale with two more wins.

1 (1) LIGHTNING - Form team going in but it only takes one poor game to end it all.


THIS WEEK'S TIPS

MELBOURNE fell a tantalising four points and three brain fades short of beating Perth in Melbourne, when the Wildcats were coming off another game with Townsville. Can't see the Tigers getting the job done at Perth Arena.

Adelaide made it back from 20 down and 18 at halftime to beat Cairns in Cairns so a depleted Wollongong should hold no fears for the 36ers. That said, the Hawks were impressive last round and should win at home.

It used to be a "reptile rumble" and while both teams are currently in a low trough, still don't expect a "lychee love-in" when arch rivals Cairns and Townsville meet yet again. Both still maintain notions of a rocket up the charts while remaining light-on in the "W" column. Cairns definitely played scared going down the stretch against Adelaide while Townsville played scarred against Wollongong after taking a welt from Perth. The 15th loss to either will be the rude awakening from the playoff dream. Coin toss - heads it's the Crocs.

The plucky Kings are sticking around without getting the results and that doesn't figure to change at home against Perth. In a scenario similar to last round, the Wildcats should win at home, then have a road battle in Sydney before prevailing in the clutch.


A GRASSHOPPER, a Black Russian and Harvey Wallbanger walk into a bar. The barman looks up from where he is cleaning glasses, stares at them and says: "This is a joke, right?"

Feb 20

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