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Stairway to Heaven or Highway to Hell?


THE NBL's Season 2023-24 has just passed its halfway mark - unless you're Illawarra or New Zealand - and as it heads into a daunting second phase, it's time for a Christmas review. Is your team on the Stairway to Heaven, or driving down the Highway to Hell? Chrissie cheer? Or sack of coal?

Well if you follow Melbourne, you should be making sure NOT to book holidays anywhere around finals time.

The championship is United's to lose. It is head and shoulders above the pack, a credit to coach Dean Vickerman and his rotation choices and the club's depth chart.

It is safe to pencil in Tasmania, Perth and Sydney - choose your own order - as the likely remaining members of the top four, barring any serious player injuries.

The absence of Mitch Creek (knee) already has chastened South East Melbourne's post-season planning, although new import Abdel Nader showed promising glimpses in his debut last round.

New Zealand at full strength and Cairns if it can find consistency, loom as the likely teams to contest the so-called "play-in tournament". (Remember when we used to just call it a top six? Oh well, we absolutely MUST blithely and blindly follow anything the NBA does.)

Just look at how Vaughan is thriving in the Coach's Challenge.  

ADELAIDE 36ERS (4-11)

THERE'S zero margin for error if the Sixers are to emerge as a late and unexpected play-in candidate, but they won't. Interim coach Scott Ninnis undoubtedly will improve this shambles and make the team competitive and even a spoiler from time to time.

But for a team supposedly looking to play its youngsters, why Ninnis persists with 34-year-old Alex Starling instead of 24-year-old Kyrin Galloway is a mystery.

Not saying Starling doesn't give his all - he does. But what is his future and what is Galloway's? Because this season is cooked and his brother over at Sydney seems to be thriving with court time.

Alleged management interference in who should play etcetera, continue to keep this unbalanced team at a "basket case" level Ninnis will have trouble staying ahead of.

Involving Isaac Humphries has proven a positive and if Dejan Vasiljevic's shot selection gets an upgrade, there will be a few wins on the horizon. 

Yes, Trentyn Flowers needs to play ... but start? He has done nothing to warrant that. Best 36ers fans can hope for is improved performances and occasional cause for delight. But they will be watching the playoffs on TV, as usual.

BRISBANE BULLETS (7-9)

LOSING DJ Mitchell to a hip injury and bringing in 198cm triple-NBL champion import Casey Prather - at 32 you know his consistent best is in the rearview mirror - keeps you guessing about where this team wants to go.

Yes, we know it's the playoffs but rookie coach Justin Schueller hasn't quite got it figured out. He is trying to turn the multi-talented but self-centred Nathan Sobey into a team player. He will be the fifth head coach at Brisbane alone to try that.

And even Joey Wright at Adelaide only succeeded in achieving that for one season - albeit the season Sobey won every award he was up for.

Subbing him out when he's being ludicrous makes sense. Subbing him out when he's rolling and the Bullets are hauling in Cairns, for example, is nonsensical. There's got to be middle ground.

The Bullets use of Angry Aron is appalling. Either make Baynes your offensive focal point when he's on - play four out and let him patrol the keyway against some sucker defender - but at the very least, PASS HIM THE BALL! 

You wonder why he gets frustrated? And when he does, it unsettles his own team. It's uncomfortable to watch. 

Isaac White and Sam McDaniel have been great pick-ups and the man-child Rocco Zikarsky, so full of energy, enthusiasm and effort, simply has to be used more. Brisbane may reach the top six post-season but will need to displace either Cairns or New Zealand to do it. Unlikely. 

CAIRNS TAIPANS (7-9)

WHEN Bul Kuol isn't being overly and overtly physical and collecting the typical fouls that come with that behaviour, he is a star-in-waiting who really isn't even waiting anymore.

But keeping his head instead of challenging every call is important to him and the Taipans. Pat Miller is a poor man's Joe Frazier in physique and can win a game off his own hand.

Be he can lose a game just as easily. And Tahjere McCall is a favourite because he is so out-of-the-box different and just understands and plays the game at an elevated level.

(When he is not throwing himself on the floor or picking up a crazed foul.) Keeping his wide variety of talents and temperaments - the Play It Again Sams, Waardenburg and Mennenga, Next Stars Bobi Klintman and Taran Armstrong, Lat Mayen, Jonah Antonio - on the same page is a challenge for Adam Forde.

And no-one outside the Taipans family knows what the hell he's doing with Josh Roberts. DNP, starter, small minutes, no minutes ... WTF?

The Taipans are all over the place. Lose to New Zealand, survive in Brisbane ... oh yeah, batter the bejesus out of Melbourne United!

This team's best is as good as anyone but Forde must find a way to consistently sync it together and then yes, they have a top-six finish ahead. And then, who knows?

ILLAWARRA HAWKS (5-8)

HOW far Justin Tatum can take this group will be fun to observe over the season's second half.

With all due respect to Brian Goorjian, who endorsed his assistant Jacob Jackomas as his Hawks coaching successor - and to Andrej Lemanis, who annointed assistant CJ Bruton as a head coach in waiting - being the #2 guy is not the same as sitting where the buck stops. Or standing.

This Illawarra group is loaded with talent and just needed to be pointed or steered in the right direction. Tatum has done that and whether we all agree on his rotation choices - as a Dan Grida fan, I can only shrug as the wins pile up - fact is this team now is bustling with the potential its roster always suggested.

Not sure the Justin Robinson-Tyler Harvey PG-OG thing is ideal but it's Tatum's headache to sort. In Gary Clark he has one of the most understated yet effective imports in the NBL this season.

And in Sam Froling, Mason Peatling and rookie Lachie Olbrich, he enjoys a one-two-three punch in the middle. 

Everyone off the bench is playing with renewed vigour and purpose. This is a team on the rise. But how far it can go will depend on how consistently Froling fires and Harvey stays under control.

MELBOURNE UNITED (13-3)

YOU read it here first - unless you read it somewhere else before ... the 2024 NBL Championship is Melbourne's to lose.

United at its best is so far and away ahead of the NBL pack that only a rush of injuries or bad luck could see them beaten in a three or five-game series.

Chris Goulding is having himself an MVP season and he has another crack 3-point artiste backing him in Ian Clark.

Matthew Dellavedova is using the season as his audition for the Paris Olympics team, Luke Travers is thriving being out of Perth and the twin towers of Jo Lual-Acuil and Ariel Hukporti own the keyways.

Throw in Shea Ili and you not only have a premier defender and playmaker but also a guy willing to risk mayhem and throw himself around in pursuit of a possession.

Flynn Cameron is a superstar-in-waiting, Tanner Krebs is a major asset and Kyle Bowen boasts the league's most ugly shot. But it is effective.

Dean Vickerman can even call on veteran Brad Newley if needs be.

Well coached, well organised, well-oiled. Well well well, if it isn't United for the flag, who is? 

NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS (5-9)

LOOK out, cause here they come. Riddled with injury issues to everyone from Will McDowell-White to Justinian Jessup to Zylan Cheatham, how the Breakers have managed to keep winning here and there is a testament to what this team is made of.

And now Cheatham and McDowell-White return, giving coach Mody Maor the team he thought he started with, albeit with Jessup replacement Anthony Lamb a major upgrade.

Parker Jackson-Cartwright has found his niche as one of the league's outstanding playmakers and Lithuanian Next Star Mantas Rubstavicius has come along in leaps and bounds.

Izayah Le'afa is relishing his role and Tom Abercrombie remains a solid presence, despite his offensive game rapidly disintegrating.

The consistent disappointment is the now-injured Finn Delany, while Mangok Mathiang has nights where the best word to describe this athletic potential star is simply "soft".

But the pieces are falling back in place for Maor, and probably just in the nick of time too.

New Zealand can string together a couple of mini-runs, it can force its way back into the black and if that happens, it will challenge for the post-season.

And there's not another team in the league that will want to see the Breakers there, such is their best.   

PERTH WILDCATS (9-6)

HAS coach John Rillie finally got the rotations and playing times right?

It sure took him dangerously long to realise Bryce Cotton has to be The Man, that Jesse Wagstaff still has enough in the tank to be an invaluable contributor, that Corey Webster sitting off can be of greater value, that Tai Webster is better as a facilitator and that patience is paying with Kristian Doolittle.

Jordan Usher fooled everyone with his opening game scoring spree but Rillie now has found a way to make use of his skillset, although he still seems confused by what Hyrum Harris and Alex Sarr can produce.

Harris is a throwback to "Wildcats Basketball" of previous eras, which is why he is so beloved. He's a run-the-ball-down, dive-on-the-floor, pinch-a-rebound guy of the Martin-Norton mould. 

And Sarr is a major talent with size and length who probably should be seeing more time, especially when Keanu Pinder runs afoul of the officials. But how far this team goes or does not hinges on one man, and everyone knows who that is.

* In case you've been wondering what goes on in coaching staff meetings before any NBL team faces the Wildcats, click this link now for exclusive behind-the-scenes footage of three NBL coaching teams working out their biggest challenge against Perth.

SOUTH EAST MELBOURNE PHOENIX (8-8)

NEW coach, old story. Look good for a while, fall off, come back, miss out.

We've all seen it before and although South East Melbourne successfully has built its fan base, losing Craig Moller for the season and struggling offensively for long patches when Mitch Creek is off the floor all adds up to the same result.

Close, but no cigar.

Gary Browne needs to review Connor Henry tape - "You're dribbling too much, you're dribbling too much, you're dribbling too much" - and players such as Ben Ayre and Matt Kenyon, possibly even Reuben Te Rangi, are solid workers who will give you their best.

But they aren't the guys to get you across the line. Creek, Alan Williams and maybe new signing Abdel Nader are the guys who should have the ball in  their hands the most.

Williams is a high IQ, articulate big man but his bad habits - regular foul problems, waving his arms wanting a foul called - only serve as distractions that diminish his game.

Creek now being out injured is a further blow, unless Nader turns out to be Robert Rose II.

Bit of the "same old, same old" here, although guys such as Rhys Vague, Gorjok Gak and Kody Stattmann offer hope. But inconsistency usually spells spectator status come playoffs.  

SYDNEY KINGS (9-6)

THE Kings started positively enough, but as they slipped back in to the pack off a string of lost winnable games, new coach Mahmoud Abdelfattah suddenly found himself in an unwanted spotlight.

Truth is, Sydney has the pieces. Jaylen Adams is a game-finisher, a champion and a league MVP. He has Shaun Bruce backing him up and occasionally running alongside him.

Alex Toohey and Jaylin Galloway are Aussie studs growing with every outing and in the middle, Sydney has Jordie Hunter interchanging with ex-NBA post Jonah Bolden.

Denzel Valentine and DJ Hogg complete a versatile import combo and Abdelfattah also has Angus Glover on his bench as a go-to guy.

Defence has been the area the Kings have had to pick up whenever they have fallen from their best and, maybe it's just a vivid imagination, but there seems to have been some games and sometimes within games, when Adams has looked disinterested.

When they're rolling, the Kings look solid threats for a deep playoff run.

But that third straight championship just looks outside Sydney's grasp.    

TASMANIA JACKJUMPERS (9-7)

HAVE no doubt Tasmania will be in the thick of the finals mix for its third straight season, a tribute to coach Scott Roth, his roster, the organisation and the burgeoning fanbase.

They continue to show how it should be done, playing an accountable brand of ball - everyone plays D, everyone moves the ball on offence.

As Milton Doyle settles back in, the only question is can Will Magnay be the influence he has shown himself capable of being on a consistent basis?

If that answer is yes, then the JackJumpers can go all the way.

In Jordon Crawford, they have unearthed and now unleashed an on-court terror with sublime ball skills and high IQ.

Jack McVeigh is playing the best ball of his life, and Anthony Drmic is revelling in the atmosphere at the Ants. So too a third ex-36er in Majok Deng, who knows his role here and plays to it.

Sean MacDonald and Clint Steindl are so reliable that all Roth needs is for Marcus Lee to stay clear of foul trouble and Fabijan Krslovic to finish around the rim and the Jackies will go deep in 2024.

Dec 21

Content, unless otherwise indicated, is © copyright Boti Nagy.