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NBL10 Rankings, Tips: Fool's Gold or Emerging Threats?


PERTH last week exposed defending NBL champion Sydney as not yet where it wants to be while South East Melbourne slowed its slide by outlasting New Zealand. Round 10 concludes with what could be the evidence necessary to either dismiss the Kings or the Phoenix as ready to challenge for the crown when they meet at Qudos Bank Arena. 

Is one (or both) of them actually Fool's Gold, you know, where they look like the real thing, feel like the real thing but fail badly at the assessor's office?

It's a bigger game for Sydney as the Kings start on the road to emerging Cairns which has unearthed import Josh Roberts as a genuine player, highlighted Pat Miller as an NBL stud and, oh yeah, they still boast Tahjere McCall.

And the talented but lately erratic Bul Kuol, Sam Waardenburg and a holy host of others responding well now to the formula at which coach Adam Forde has arrived.

And Fordey only loves beating his former outpost in Sydney as much as he enjoys beating the Wildcats, his initial NBL port of call.

Perth will have its hands full negotiating Illawarra in Wollongong and while the Wildcats have displaced Melbourne at the top spot in our weekly rankings, Justin Tatum's influence on the Hawks has been remarkable and immediate.

A road win in New Zealand, a stiff one-point loss to the Bullets in Brisbane. It's not quite enough to start them as favourites against the league's form team, but don't expect this to be an easy win by any stretch. Lachie Olbrich did well with his time last round and is another starting to flourish in the new regime.

New Zealand hosting Tasmania would be match of the round if the Breakers had their full complement but the JackJumpers won't fall apart the way Adelaide did last round.

And flying into Adelaide, Cairns will need to prepare for the inevitable "coach is sacked, new coach syndrome" which we already saw work for Illawarra.

As soon as coach Jacob Jackomas was shown the door, the players lifted. After all, they had to show it wasn't their fault JJ got the heave ho.

That's the basics of "coach is sacked, new coach syndrome" and it usually lasts that first week. After that, a team's character eventually emerges - good or bad.

So with CJ Bruton sacked yesterday and Scott Ninnis installed - he definitely should not go looking for potential assistants at Lawlors - expect the 36ers roster to respond in kind. Hey, it wasn't our fault!!

No. It was that damn schedule!!

Eh. It will be time for the Sixers to stand up, which looms as a danger game for the Taipans on a second leg. (I mean, we also have recent evidence of how the rigours of travelling can sabotage a program...)

Of course, the added wrinkle here is the news breaking that Sixers management wanted Bruton to dump Mitch McCarron, Jason Cadee and Sunday Dech, with a heavy eye also on Isaac Humphries. How Ninnis handles that fall-out and whether they react with a "We'll show you" or a "Go and get knotted" attitude does influence the usual reaction.

OK. Maybe Melbourne-Brisbane could qualify as match of the round but United's hiccup last week, while it cost them #1 spot in our rankings, is not anything their fans should be concerned about.

That's before we turn for home at Qudos Bank Arena. Is Sydney for real? Is SEM a pretender. It's definitely worth tuning in.

ROUND 10 TIPS
Cairns will ambush Sydney and further advance its playoff claims.
Home at last, Illawarra will push Perth but not quite get across the line.
The big island of NZ versus the little one but Tassie wins a classic contest.
Cairns will be feeling good but Adelaide will score a rare upset.
Melbourne will stave off Brisbane in another hard-fought battle. 
The Kings will reign at home against the Phoenix’s best efforts.

NBL RANKINGS – WEEK 10
This          Last
Week       Week   Club

  1               2        Perth (8-5) On a six-pack of wins and can flex its muscles.
  2               1        Melbourne (10-3) Minor hiccup and nothing to worry about.
  3               3        Tasmania (8-5) Were exceptional last round but Sixers sucked.
  4               4        Sydney (7-5) Still a work-in-progress but when does that end?
  5               5        Cairns (5-7) Played their best game of the year and rolling now.
  6               8        Brisbane (7-7) Twin wins but still unconvincing in the endgame.
  7               7        South East (7-6) Chugging along but really need a statement win.
  8               9        Illawarra (3-8) Have direction and purpose and ready to upset.
  9              10       New Zealand (4-8) Hanging around but Loss column still growing.
10               6        Adelaide (4-9) Sacked coach week usually means a resurgence.
 

Dec 7

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